Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrollbar
It's relevant because the team would be moving from Phoenix to Winnipeg. Seems simple enough, yes?
|
I can get behind the argument that Winnipeg could gain more revenue than Phoenix, sure. But that doesn't automatically mean that Winnipeg is a viable NHL market in the long term.
Quote:
|
Phoenix is losing tens of millions each year, and Winnipeg has been forcasted by CBC to be in the middle of the pack for revenue. Seems like a good swap.
|
Yes, except that the report was fundamentally flawed.
For instance, it projected that Winnipeg would receive a maximum potential revenue sharing share of $13 million. Problem is, teams in the top half of league revenue are ineligible for the cost redistribution system in the first place (CBA 49.3 B (i)). Also, that system is designed to get the teams to the salary midpoint. So if Winnipeg were a higher revenue generating team but still qualified, they wouldn't be getting nearly what is being suggested.
I suspect there are other aspects of revenue sharing beyond just this part, but all told, I believe the $13 million figure is bogus.
The $45 million in ticket revenue is, likewise, bogus. They arrived at that total with what appears to be straight multiplication: $75 x 15,015 x 41 games. Except that the stated capacity includes luxury suites, which is noted as a separate $10 million. CBC's projection is double dipping on ticket sales. It is also assuming 0 tickets given away. Now, Winnipeg wouldn't be giving away thousands of tickets like some other teams, but even the most frugal are giving away a couple hundred a game for various promotional reasons.
Television: CBC says $19 million in broadcast revenue. Well, NBC/Versus ($200,), CBC ($100m), TSN ($40m) and RDS ($15m) will average just under $12 million per team next year. CBC's report came out before the NBC deal was announced, so my estimation is that CBC was assuming about $10 million in local broadcast rights for Winnipeg. According to the
Toronto Star, the NHL made about $500 million total on its national and regional deals. Subtracting the national deals, that put the average regional deal at about $8.5 million. Given Winnipeg's market size, one would have to be remarkably optimistic to think Winnipeg would go above that average, which is undoubtedly inflated by teams like Toronto, Montreal, Pittsburgh and the like.
In short, CBC's projections are wildly inflated, and combine both best case scenarios with unrealistic scenarios to come at a totally fabricated figure.
What you call "anti-Winnipeg trolling", I call critical thinking. Don't just swallow what you are told wholesale. Take the time to consider the numbers, and ask yourself if they truly are valid.