Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
I don't know if I really believe in the 100 seat projection personally. That would be a 60 some odd seat improvement over the last election result.
I think people are getting too tied up in polls representing popular vote and trying to translate them into seat projections.
I also figure that when it comes to election day, some people will step back from the NDP and move back to their party line.
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threehundredeight has the NDP at 47 seats, which would be an all-time high. Interestingly, they have the NDP "winning" only nine seats in Quebec, but eight of those would be gains - 1 from the Conservatives, three from the Liberals and four from the Bloc. What is kind of crazy is that they predict only one Ontario riding will change hands - from an independent to a Conservative.
Only one change in BC - CPC to Liberal, but that riding is showing a statistical tie. No changes in Alberta or Saskatchewan, one seat in Manitoba goes liberal to NDP. Two CPC seats go NDP in Nova Scotia, and one Liberal goes CPC in Newfoundland.
Which really makes you wonder... with such a large swing in the national polls, how can so little actually change in the predictions? CBC had an article up a couple days ago that basically said "polls are worthless", so we'll see.