Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
I think its because of the probable split with the NDP. If the NDP gets hammered then it works for the Liberals, but if not then they are fighting both the left and right....which could mean a huge, huge loss for the Liberals.
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Yeah, you look at the expected seat count in 308. After the last election
Conservatives 143 seats Liberals 77 seats, NDP 36 seats, Bloq 47 seats
Based on todays numbers
Conservatives 152 Libs 73, NDP 33 Bloq 50 seats
So in that poll the Cons are gaining 9, the Liberals are losing 4, the NDP are losing 3 and the Bloq is gaining 3.
If you went by your theory, the Right has gained 9 seats, the Left has lost 7 seats, the bloq has gained 3 seats. God I hope my math is right.
To me it almost seems to indicate, not a fight for the left vote, but that the 2 left parties have missed the key messages and votes have either moved to the Right, or the seps.
To some extent this has to be demoralizing to the Liberals, they replaced a weak leader with a strong leader and over halfway through they are polling to a worse position.
I don't think that this is bothering Layton too much, I don't think that the NDP is a really good alternative party during economic troubles.