[Claeren]

I think concern for Calgary home prices comes when you combine the total ownership percentage (70%) with the housing costs v income (40%-60%).

When you are at an extreme high in ownership rates the amount of people earning anywhere remotely close to the median income who do not own a home (or two or three of them) is smaller and smaller.

In Calgary this effect is exaggerated further because the entire average is brought up by a lot of very high incomes, not necessarily higher incomes for the bottom 50% which are more in line with national wage rates.

Then remove a large amount of the leverage (35 and 40 year, no downpayment, etc) those remaining future home buyers were using to buy more home than their income dictated and you are taking more and more future steam out of the market.

Then you start talking demographics shift, rates at historic lows, etc and I still do not see why prices have any reason to go up in the medium term.


Putting it another way, if only 60% of Calgarians owned a home, and most only owned one home, then the amount of high income earners who could buy a home is high. -- If you sell yachts and every rich person already owns a yacht at home, and a yacht in their favorite vacation spot, who the hell are you going to sell yachts to?


Virtually every person I know over 24 years old already owns at least one home. That is crazy.


Claeren.