Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
Right now, the Conservatives are polling at roughly 38% nationally against all the other parties.
Presumably, all of those 38% would prefer a Conservative majority. So, this poll would seem to indicate that there's 12% of the population who does not support the Conservatives but would prefer a Conservative majority to a Lib-NDP-Bloc coalition.
Presumably, most Bloc and NDP supporters would favour a coalition because it would finally be a chance for their party to have some level of control in government rather than always being in opposition, so I'd assume most of that 12% is from Liberal supporters who would prefer a Conservative majority to a Lib-NDP-Bloc coalition. 12% of the total is about half the Liberals' support. If enough of them hold their noses and vote Conservative to prevent a coalition, it could be enough for that majority.
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This all assumes that a Lib-NDP-Bloc coalition is the only alternative to a Conservative majority, and it isn't. And if Bloc and NDP supporters would really prefer to be in government than opposition, they wouldn't be Bloc or NDP supporters.