Quote:
Originally Posted by transplant99
I think normally this would be true, but there is a real issue for the left this time and that is vote-splitting like they haven't had to worry about before. It seems like the ultra-left Libs will head towards the NDP in a lot of cases, while the centrist Libs may head towards the Tories.
Obviously the Libs need a whole lot of help in Ontario to remain anywhere close to forming the opposition, but look at their numebrs in Quebec and I can see them falling to 3rd in the seat numbers. If the Ont. vote swings even a few seats to either the NDP or the CPC...its lights out for the Liberals.
Though again...its very early.
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You could be right. Vote-splitting in the East could be bad news for the Liberals, especially in Ontario and the maritimes.
Of course, the Tories and Liberals are
both going to get wiped out in Quebec. Harper because of the "coalition" talk, and Ignatieff, well, because they just don't like him all that much. That means the Liberals have to kill Ontario, and I don't even think they're
ahead at the moment, let alone in position to take 90 seats there.
So, in that case, you're probably right--and 41% is likely enough for a majority.