[John Doe]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

We're 2 days into the campaign, and the opening salvo that the Conservatives were going to use was the threat of a coalition, today Harper I thought fairly effectively talked about 2004 and put Duceppe on the spot a bit.

Really? I thought he looked really bad by not answering the question, and from his remarks back to the journalists (I couldn't hear what they were saying), they weren't buying it. Harper is taking a big risk by using most of his speeches (so far at least) on the coalition as Duceppe is using it against him. If Layton backs Duceppe, the coalition issue could hurt Harper more than help him

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I've had a lot of problems with the contempt of parliament issue. If you go back to the Liberal government under Chretien where he did similar things, tried to hide his scandals like Shawnigate and regularly canceled opposition days, the only reason why things like a contempt charge weren't bought about was because the Liberal's had a majority government.

That is the fact of the matter when you have a majority government. I don't condone some of the questionable actions of the Liberal party under Chretien, but I don't see how that is an excuse for what the Conservatives under Harper have done either. If Harper is stupid enough to be in contempt of Parliament with a minority government, then he deserves to be found so.

What I have a problem with is that the Conservatives dismiss the charge by saying that it was just a vote by Liberals, NDPers and BQ's. Well sorry, but that is Parliament, which just happens to be the highest court in the land. I find is puzzling that the Conservatives try to portray themselves as the "law and order" party, yet will not accept rulings from the highest court in the land!

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Sadly whatever party is going to run the government your going to get the same kind of scandals, the same kind of bs hiding of project and policy information costs...

I may be wrong, but I am pretty sure that withholding costs as the Conservatives have done by claiming them to be "cabinet confidence" is ground-breaking.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

...and the same kind of external attempts at influence peddling. In terms of this on the latest charges against the Lawyer and the escort Harper bought in the RCMP to investigate it which we and he knew would bring it into the open. Harper can point to that one and a couple of other RCMP investigations during this election as illustrations of attempting to shut down illicit influence peddling and lobbying.

Harper brought in the RCMP to get ahead of the game as he knows how potentially damaging Carson can be to him. The damage to Harper will be that the opposition will use Carson as an example of the type of people that Harper surrounds himself with.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

In the weeks to come Harper is going to roll out a number of things to attack the Liberals and NDP

1) He's going to go to the budget and attack Layton because whether it was a strategy or as someone weirdly pointed out an undemocratic move to control parliament, the Conservatives did embed NDP wishes into the budget, so whether it was an attempt to gently force an election is irrelevant on the campaign trail.

Who is this going to help? If anything, I would think that it would hurt the Conservatives as they continually ridicule the NDP for their fiscal views, yet were willing to take advise from them to create the budget?

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

2) We know that Harper is going to attack the BPO over their calculations on the F35 program and the tough on crime costs.

Again, how will this help him? He created the PBO (I believe this is what you are talking about) and appointed Kevin Page, who has been more accurate in the past than the government has been with their predictions. If he attacks the PBO, it will further enforce the already existing view that he is very heavy-handed with independent government watchdogs who don't agree with him.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

3) Harper is starting to go after Ducceppe over his roll and supposed changing story in 2004.

Harper is strictly on the defense here and there is no offensive maneuvering for him on this file. Nothing he can do on this issue will hurt Duceppe, yet there are some potential huge risks for Harper here.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

4) They will attack Ignatieff for refusing to work with the minority government and again point to the fact that they were willing to negotiate on the budget as they did with the NDP.

But how can they use this argument when they only contacted the NDP and wouldn't call the Liberals?

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

5) They will go after the Bloc's attempted blackmail of Canada with the demand for cash and show that the conservatives were willing to lose power instead of folding to the bloc.

This will help the Bloc in Quebec more than it will help the Conservatives. It may help the Conservatives outside of Quebec, but will it help them in this case more than it will hurt them in Quebec?

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

6) They will go after Ignatieff over his stupid promise of a hockey arena in Quebec in exchange for votes.

This is what they should do. This was a stupid decision by Ignatieff.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

7) They'll go after Ignatieff on his statements about taxation

About the reinstatement of corporate taxes to 2010 levels? They had better be careful about that as polling suggests that most people agree with this.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

8) They'll go after the Liberals about forcing another wasteful election.

They are going to try this, but will it stick? This is pretty tough to do when you have just lost confidence of the house by being the first government in parliamentary history to be found in contempt of parliament.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Its great that Ignatieff is all relaxed and looks comfortable on day 2. But he is still a very experienced guy, he's not saying anything thats concrete about why a Liberal government needs to be elected, he's falling into the same trap that the two previous liberal leaders have utilized to failure, in the whole vote for us because the Conservatives are scary, and I don't know if that strategy will do well for the Liberal's because I think voters will be pissed that an election was called because the government was scary.

While Harper needs to attack on the above, he has a balancing act that he has to do, he has to attack, while using the economy as his defense, and thats the toughest thing during the two debates.

I've said it before, I'm looking forward to seeing Harper brawling with Ignatieff in the debates.

The Conservative narrative over the last three years has been an all-out attack on Ignatieff. They need this negative portrayal to stick, as people will be paying more attention to him during the election period. If Ignatieff can change peoples perceptions of him during the election, it could significantly affect the results. I have always wondered why the Conservatives attacked Ignatieff so relentlessly from the git-go. I have come to the conclusion that they are afraid of him.

As for the bolded part, I to am looking forward to the debates.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

But Ignatieff has another problem, he is going to be attacked by the NDP heavily as Layton knows that he needs the Liberal seats as much as Harper does.

I don't think the NDP will attack the Liberals as much as they attack the Conservatives. They are the existing government, and are further from the NDP values than the Liberals are. As of right now, the NDP are concentrating on Conservative ridings (according to "Question Period" from this morning).

Something else you should consider is that as of now, each party has spending limits. That means for every attack ad the Conservatives run, the Liberals, NDP and BQ will each be able to run one themselves, and from what I have read each party will spend to the limit. This advantage that the Conservatives have enjoyed for the last few years has now become a disadvantage.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

On another note, please please please lets leave Elizabeth May at home during the debates, she was a waste of skin in the last one.

Agreed! I would actually like to see a debate between Harper and Ignatieff only, but I doubt very much that will happen.