Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - 2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

octothorp · 03-25-2011, 03:04 PM

First up, the Laurier Institute's projection today of a Conservative majority. Of course, it should be pointed out that this isn't a firm prediction by them, it's just an extrapolation based on the last three polls (by Ipsos, Nanos, and Harris Decima, all conducted over the last two weeks).

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html

It assumes a 10 point lead in Ontario. I'm don't think that's an accurate depiction of what the margin is right now. The Harris-Decima (by far the largest of the three) put the lead in Ontario at just 1 point, while the Nasos and Ipsos ones had it at 16% and 12% respectively. This is a massive disparity, and going back over the previous months, Nanos and Ipsos tend to have wider margins in Ontario, while Decima and Ekos (the two with the largest sample sizes) have been much closer.

My question is whether it's an advantage or disadvantage to be in majority territory too early? I think the Tories have to like the numbers they're seeing in the polls right now, but the focus of the debate will likely become whether the country is ready for a Harper majority, and the coalition card becomes more difficult to play (since even a three-party coalition wouldn't be able to form a government, based on these projections). At the same time, it's great for the Tories that they'll have a very fired-up base.

03-25-2011, 03:04 PM	#2
octothorp Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: not lurking Exp:	First up, the Laurier Institute's projection today of a Conservative majority. Of course, it should be pointed out that this isn't a firm prediction by them, it's just an extrapolation based on the last three polls (by Ipsos, Nanos, and Harris Decima, all conducted over the last two weeks). http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html It assumes a 10 point lead in Ontario. I'm don't think that's an accurate depiction of what the margin is right now. The Harris-Decima (by far the largest of the three) put the lead in Ontario at just 1 point, while the Nasos and Ipsos ones had it at 16% and 12% respectively. This is a massive disparity, and going back over the previous months, Nanos and Ipsos tend to have wider margins in Ontario, while Decima and Ekos (the two with the largest sample sizes) have been much closer. My question is whether it's an advantage or disadvantage to be in majority territory too early? I think the Tories have to like the numbers they're seeing in the polls right now, but the focus of the debate will likely become whether the country is ready for a Harper majority, and the coalition card becomes more difficult to play (since even a three-party coalition wouldn't be able to form a government, based on these projections). At the same time, it's great for the Tories that they'll have a very fired-up base.