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BlackArcher101 · 03-20-2011, 11:45 AM

The system was incredibly dynamic. Almost impossible to pinpoint where the moisture influx would happen. All they knew is the band of snow would be wide and long, so it was probably best to do a blanket warning for southern alberta. Better to be prepared than not.

With these sorts of storms, computer models are heavily relied upon. This was the forecasters "thoughts" late yesterday:

FOR AB..MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ABOUT A HEAVY SNOW
BAND FORMING IN A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. MANY
PIECES TO THE PUZZLE ARE THERE.. DEEPENING SURFACE TROF EXTENDING
NWWD FROM WY LO COMBINES WITH DVLPG ELY UPSLP FLO SOUTH OF SFC HI
BLDG IN FM NWT. GUD MOISTURE TRANSPORT EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AHEAD
UPR TROF. INCRG DEF ALOFT WILL ACCENTUATE UPWARD VV THROUGH MID
LEVELS. LO/MID LVL INSTBY OVER THE AREA SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WITH
NEWD SHIFT OF UPR THRML RDG THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL TO BE DETERMINED
IS WHERE EXACTLY THE MAIN SNOW BAND WILL FORM. WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST REGIONS ALONG MTNS AND FTHLS THROUGH TO SOUTHESTERN
AB. WILL ENDEAVOUR TO BE MORE CONCISE AS THE SITU DEVELOPS.

It shows how complex forecasting can be.

03-20-2011, 11:45 AM	#368
BlackArcher101 Such a pretty girl! Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Calgary Exp:	The system was incredibly dynamic. Almost impossible to pinpoint where the moisture influx would happen. All they knew is the band of snow would be wide and long, so it was probably best to do a blanket warning for southern alberta. Better to be prepared than not. With these sorts of storms, computer models are heavily relied upon. This was the forecasters "thoughts" late yesterday: FOR AB..MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ABOUT A HEAVY SNOW BAND FORMING IN A NW TO SE ORIENTATION OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA. MANY PIECES TO THE PUZZLE ARE THERE.. DEEPENING SURFACE TROF EXTENDING NWWD FROM WY LO COMBINES WITH DVLPG ELY UPSLP FLO SOUTH OF SFC HI BLDG IN FM NWT. GUD MOISTURE TRANSPORT EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AHEAD UPR TROF. INCRG DEF ALOFT WILL ACCENTUATE UPWARD VV THROUGH MID LEVELS. LO/MID LVL INSTBY OVER THE AREA SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WITH NEWD SHIFT OF UPR THRML RDG THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL TO BE DETERMINED IS WHERE EXACTLY THE MAIN SNOW BAND WILL FORM. WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST REGIONS ALONG MTNS AND FTHLS THROUGH TO SOUTHESTERN AB. WILL ENDEAVOUR TO BE MORE CONCISE AS THE SITU DEVELOPS. It shows how complex forecasting can be. __________________ Last edited by BlackArcher101; 03-20-2011 at 11:48 AM.