I've read Twilight in the Desert too. While what Caramon says is more or less what I believe too, I also think the general principle of the book acting as a warning to maybe re-think what OPEC tells us to be a pretty good one.
The thing about peak oil arguments that I've always wondered about, is that they never seem to take into account technological innovations. Or if they do try, there is no possible way to know what we will be able to achieve in 10 years time with new drilling, completion, primary / secondary / tertiary recovery methods (or are there ones not even invented yet?). Or are there still monster pools of oil not discovered yet in the oceans or harder to reach places?
I just dunno, and nobody does.
And at the end of the day, the faster $200/bbl comes, the better for so many gas producers as governments and consumers turn up the heat on natural gas as a cleaner and incredibly vast supply already prepared for consumption in North America.
We need more reasons to use more natural gas. The environment and sustainable development included.
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