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Originally Posted by Thunderball
Rouge, you seem to forget that Canada would not be all that strong. They just lost 3.3m people, and 15-20% of their national economy. Plus, odds are, Canada would balkanize if Alberta (or Quebec) split off. BC could very likely be teaming up, which would change everything. Assuming they didn't, Alberta could cripple BC by imposing heavy tax on anything coming or going through Alberta rail or airspace. Why would the US help Canada with that problem, cause they're nice guys? Naw, to them Alberta and Canada would be two pains in the ass... but one supplies oil. Canada would have to play ball too, cause being hardasses wouldn't help anyone, and would only prove to destablize North America, which the Americans wouldn't tolerate.
When it comes to defense, odds are Alberta would insist on 10% of the armed forces if they took on 10% of the national debt. Thats something to build on. Not to mention the amount of equipment we'd buy from the US.
As for the global community stuff... once a number of states, or a couple major states recognize Alberta... and they would. (See Czech and Slovak Republics), Canada would be severely penalized for attempting to damage this state. The US may be able to dodge the international community, but a weakened Canada sure as hell couldn't.
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An independent Alberta would be to Canada what Mexico is to the U.S. It would not have the clout to dictate anything, even with oil. Mexico is in fact an oil rich nation but is still subject to whatever the more powerful North American neighbour wants...
I also don't think that it is a given that the international community would recognize Alberta as an independent country. With Czechoslovakia, each region was already a recognized republic with distinct cultures and histories. The only reason they were together was to create an artificial buffer between European powers. The split was pretty much mutual between Czechs and Slovaks, where as in Canada, there is no history of Alberta without Canada. In fact, Alberta was created BY Canada.
A better example would be to look at Kosovo. Despite a situation far more dire than that in Alberta, the international community decided that it was still Serbian territory and affirmed that. Their independence was never recognized because Kosovo was historically a Serbian province and was never a nation (like Slovakia or the Czech Republic which were nations within a state, as well as Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, and Macedonia). If genocide wouldn't even help Kosovo get international recognition, then I doubt Alberta would get any attention.