I think with same-sex marriage you really have 25% of the country strongly in favour of it, 25% of the country strongly opposed to it, and 50% of the country who just don't care, see the matter closed, and don't think it's worth spending any more time debating it.
I don't see what Harper has to gain by re-visiting the issue; surely it will galvanize his base of social conservatives, but he had their vote anyway. At best the moderate voters are ambivalent towards it, and at worst this will scare them away from his social policies.
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