Quote:
Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates
Plenty of reason to think about next year, it's only a month away.
But what about other factors that will come into play next year, and their effects?
If rates creep up: but unemployment decreases, rental vacancies decrease, incomes go up, oil prices go up & immigration to the province goes up what effect does that have on housing demand and prices?
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I have a feeling we're on the brink of that happening. Nothing concrete, but everyone I talk to in the oilpatch is forecasting a very busy 2011, especially in the drilling/service end. I've heard a lot of talk about a shortage of service companies because half of them either went under, or took off to Saskatchewan the last 2 years. These are the bigger companies I talk to, mind you. No idea what the juniors are doing. Again, all word of mouth.
I also travel a lot in the US and overseas, and it feels like the US is picking up. A lot of the roadbuilders are forecasting an increase in production in 2011, which means higher construction. Any increase over 2009 is a welcome one here, because the last 24 months were TERRIBLE in the areas I frequent (California, Idaho, Arizona, The Carolinas and Georgia).
I was in China last week and the news I was hearing was that banks are trying to slow down inflation. Housing prices are going crazy in Beijing and Shanghai, construction is going off, and their economy is starting to pick up some serious momentum. I'm in the steel business, and everyone I talk to is forecasting an increase in global raw material prices due to Chinese demand.
The general feeling I'm getting is that China's demand is ramping up, and the USA is showing slight recovery from 2009-2010 levels. For a resource based economy like Alberta's, that's probably a good thing, especially for the housing market.
Again, no concrete "studies", just a general feeling I'm getting based on my travels.