I'm not really a hater ... I want to try it quite badly. I do think it will tank though. It's ambitious and I'm sure it will sell well initially, but I simply don't see how a sports game is going to work without being "wii-ized" (simplified). Golf for instance is something I don't see it being able to do as well as a wiimote or a Move controller just because you need those minuscule little movements that the reviews lead me to believe Kinect is currently poor at detecting.
I think the absence of a controller is ultimately going to be the downfall here. Even look at the wii and it's hardcore games. Goldeneye ships with a classic controller and Metroid is played wiimote sideways like an NES controller ... it just seems that for some games you need a controller.
To be fair I'm not just a sony fan bashing MS. I tried Move and while the tech was kind of impressive, I saw very little redeeming qualities.
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