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Originally Posted by transplant99
I hope you are right, I hope Nenshi wins the thing, (again from a distance and from very limited research on platforms etc) and he may. However...i keep coming back to it, his biggest level of support is among those least likely to vote. Not sure that is something that he can overcome or not, it all depends on how he and his campaign workers are able to rally the troops on Tuesday.
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I think if anything, the thing that Nenshi's campaign has shown is that he is quite capable of rallying the troops to his cause. He's gone from 5% to 30% in a little less than a month.
And I get that a lot of the negatives surrounding his campaign is that his supposed base, the 18-35 year olds only sit around
smoking pot and watching Dexter, but is this really any better than saying that seniors won't vote because they're too busy watching Matlock? I think these generalizations are an outdated mentality.
Nenshi's team has spent quite a bit of their time at the Universities and SAIT promoting students to get out to vote. And from initial first hand accounts on the #yycvote discussion it looks like students are taking the opportunity to flex their voting muscle at the advance polling stations at their respective institutions.
There are a lot of good things going for Nenshi's campaign and I think he may be peaking at the most opportune time.
- His base are fanatic about him. I think in comparison to Barb and McIvor, Nenshi's supporters are doing a far better job of personally convincing others or engaging them in a political conversation.The number of single personal donations on his site is pretty telling to this.
- The Bob Hawksworth controversy is almost galvanizing his supporters in that us vs. the rest of them mentality, which is pushing a stronger tie to vote and get people informed.
- I think this last poll came out at the most opportune time for Nenshi, because at the beginning of the week, it seemed like there was a good portion of the ABM movement debating whether to side with Barb to ensure Dr. No didn't get in.
- The difference in time frames from the previous two polls to the one released today is very important. The previous two polls were taken within a day apart of each other. Giving a misleading image that the campaign had stalled and it was too late. While this last poll is at least 4 days apart. So it's showing a steady increased for Nenshi.
I'm not saying Nenshi is a lock to win this by any means. It's still Ric's to lose. And anything can happen in the last 5 days, but things are definitely looking up for N^2 at the moment and I don't see them slowing down.