Quote:
Originally Posted by transplant99
Yes I do....or more correctly put ...an imbalanced view of what will actually happen. Just look at the poll support numbers here to determine that. Nenshi is running at nearly 70%....and that is no where near reality.
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Let's look at how Nenshi has trended here on CP and see if it really is that different than the real world.
CP Poll #1
Nenshi 65/159 41%
McIver 38/159 24%
Higgins 0/159 (Not yet a declared candidate - Hehr was in 3rd place)
CP Poll #2
Nenshi 98/305 33%
McIver 37/305 12%
Higgins 75/305 25%
CP Poll #3
Nenshi 144/240 60%
McIver 32/240 13%
Higgins 29/240 12%
CP Poll #4
Nenshi 190/280 68%
McIver 43/280 15%
Higgins 29/280 10%
So in absolute numbers, an additional 125 CP users were willing to tick the nenshi box in the 4th poll verses the 1st, and his share of votes increased over 50%. (Comparably, Nenshi's support in the general population increased more than 400%)
McIver has had an additional 5 CP users select him from the 1st to 4th polls while his share of voters has remained fairly consistent over the past 3. (McIver's share of the public vote has also stalled, failing to make any increases)
Higgins had a bunch of early supporters (poll 2) but has lost 46 of them (more than half) in the most recent tally. (Public polls also showed Higgins with an early lead in the race, significantly ahead of McIver - now she is mired in a dead heat)
So while the percentages may differ on CP verses the city as a whole, the trends are spot on.