Quote:
Originally Posted by firebug
A bit of math behind my opinion...
Using the 33/30/30 split from the Leger survey would result in
McIver 165/500 voters
Nenshi 150/500
Higgins 150/500
I applied a follow-through (i.e. showing up to actually vote) metric of
McIver 40%
Nenshi 50%
Higgins 30%
Results:
Nenshi 75/186 voters (40%)
McIver 66/186 (35%)
Higgins 45/186 (24%)
This would result in 186/500 voters actually showing up (~37%) an number far higher than any election in the past decade.
Admittedly, my estimates for follow-through are completely biased, but reflect the level of participation I have witnessed in the electorate.
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I have a hard time believing what you have "witnessed" is anything more than bogus. If I went by that, I'd have an 80-10-10 for Nenshi. We aren't in people's lives and we shouldn't speculate to be, regardless of bias.