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Old 10-13-2010, 12:56 PM   #717
firebug
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Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: Mayor of McKenzie Towne
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A bit of math behind my opinion...

Using the 33/30/30 split from the Leger survey would result in
McIver 165/500 voters
Nenshi 150/500
Higgins 150/500

I applied a follow-through (i.e. showing up to actually vote) metric of
McIver 40%
Nenshi 50%
Higgins 30%

Results:
Nenshi 75/186 voters (40%)
McIver 66/186 (35%)
Higgins 45/186 (24%)

This would result in 186/500 voters actually showing up (~37%) an number far higher than any election in the past decade.

Admittedly, my estimates for follow-through are completely biased, but reflect the level of participation I have witnessed in the electorate.
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