Quote:
Originally Posted by frinkprof
It means that the poll's margin of error at 95% confidence could mean that Higgins is actually tied with or behind McIver.
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Here's my major worry about all of the polls in this municipal election: there appears to be no real likely voter screen. The poll before this had 80% responding that they were definitely going to vote; considering that the final turnout number will probably be more like 30%, that's a major shortcoming in any survey.
I'm not saying this merely as a Nenshi booster--I'm just suggesting that we may well still be in the dark here. Is there a difference between people who will definitely/have already voted and people who are unlikely to vote? Conventional wisdom dictates that the unlikely voter is the likeliest to be swayed by name recognition.
Anecdotally, I don't know a single person who is going to vote for Higgins, but I know a few who are definitely voting McIver, and plenty who are voting Nenshi. I have also (no joke) seen more lawn signs for
Bob freaking Hawkesworth than I have for Barb Higgins. The leaders in that area are McIver and Nenshi, and it isn't close.
I have no way of being sure, but my suspicion is that Higgins' support is way overstated here. I think McIver is still in the lead.