Quote:
Originally Posted by mykalberta
This should be changed to...
Go Higgins
A strong higgins vote helps Nenshi. If its a 2 horse race between No and N^2, N^2 will lose. He has a much better chance imo in a 3 horse race where he can draft the front 2 then come up the middle - remember - rubbins racin.
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I disagree with you. Naheed and Barb are essentially fighting for the anti-McIver votes. Of course you don't want Barb to drop too far so that it gives McIver the air of inevitability but Barb needs to continue her descent and Nenshi needs to pick her supporters off.
Here is, IMO, the scenario that Nenshi needs in order to win:
- Barb needs to drop 10-15 percent in the polls and needs to bleed that support towards Nenshi
- McIver needs to bleed some support...at least 2-3 percent each to both Burrows and Stewart.
- Nenshi needs to have the progressive vote coalesce around him...ie Hehr's and Hawkesworth's support needs to move towards him en masse.
- Nenshi's base of support needs to turn out and needs to turn out at a much higher percentage than anyone else. I believe that this will certainly be the case as Nenshi's supporters seem more engaged than Higgins' or McIver's supporters.
- IMO, Nenshi can beat McIver in a 2.5 man/woman race...it would be tough to win if Higgins completely crashes and burns as she'll send some big money supporters to McIver. He can't win in a three person race because he simply can't get enough votes from the right places to be able to do it.