[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The average person generally won't understand the purpose behind it, so to gain political traction on this, the Liberals have to not only educate the public on the reasons the long form exists in the first place, but has to motivate that same public to care enough for it to become an issue.

Tories might try to reassure themselves with that story, but the numbers just don't bear it out. Here are the facts: the Tories suffered an instant 6 point drop in the EKOS tracking poll when this issue went public. Their previously solid lead completely evaporated, practically overnight. They've since regained a much smaller lead, but the internals (way more important than the topline, especially this far from an election) don't look very good for them at all.

Among University-educated voters (who are likelier to vote) the Liberals have gained significantly at the expense of the Tories, and the Conservative Party still polls below a third of the electorate. That means two thirds of Canadians will vote for a different party, and Harper is once again closer to being out of office than he is to forming a majority.

According to EKOS:

For those wondering if the Census dispute is having any real effect on the Canadian electorate, the evidence is now in. When we look at what happened to the voting intentions of the highly educated, it appears almost certain that the narrowing race can be traced to the controversy over the government’s decision to end the compulsory long form. Changes in the demographic anatomy of support lead to the conclusion that this controversy has triggered a fairly significant shift in the electorate during a fairly quiet summer period when little else is at play.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.ph...ugust-19-2010/

Here's the point. Hardcore conservative supporters (such as you'd find in abundance in Calgary) are likely to be confused by this issue, because it doesn't seem "life or death." Think about it: for you to change your vote, Harper would have to do something far worse than pee all over Stats Canada.

But for swing voters, and especially swing voters in other regions, that simply isn't true. The fact is, that Harper has been walking a thin line between minority PM and leader of the Opposition, and he knows it. That's why I'm surprised that he bungled this so badly. For some voters, this story confirms a negative narrative about Harper that has been bugging them for a while. Most of those voters don't live in Calgary and don't post on Calgarypuck, but they're real nevertheless, and Harper can't win the next election without a sizeable chunk of votes from his "softer" support in other regions of the country.

I disagree that the Liberals are bringing this into the spotlight. My feeling is the Grits are late to the party on this one. The Liberals' mistake was being silent about this issue for too long. The public doesn't need to be convinced to care about this issue--the data shows that they already care, and they care enough that Harper should be (and probably is) alarmed by the very rapid erosion of his party in the polls, an erosion that has been driven in large part by the census issue.