Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
I still think that the double dip won't happen on the balance of probabilities. I would put that at 65/35 with 65 being it not happening.
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I'm with you there too. I think everyone is coming to grips with the fact that due to the housing contraction in the US that consumer spending is going to take a long while to recover. The recent bear market is most likely a rebalancing of expectations towards slow growth over a prolonged period and not necessarily contraction.
That all said with GDP growth lingering below 2% in the US economy which still has a lot of unutilized productive capacity it still doesn't indicate much promise for employment and any major bad news event could send the economy back into recession.