Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
I would say that its at least 65% chance of not happening. There hasn't been a recession without an inversion of the yield curve in a long, long time, and its not even close to being inverted now.
Michael
|
Short rates are rising and longer rates are falling right now . . . . although a long way from being inverted. But that's what's happening.
Historically, it's always this way . . . . a big push out of the bear market followed by an extended period of flatness as markets wait to see if the economy is truly digging in. We're in that flat period now. The TSX is essentially in the same place it was last September.
So far, although we may feel we live in extraordinary times, this has been pretty much bang on with the averages for bear/bull transitions in the post-war period. This has been a pretty ordinary recovery so far. But the flatness could continue for a while.
Double dip recessions are rare.
Amusingly, a few days ago, while rummaging out in a storage area I have out on my acreage, I came across a sealed plastic bin I'd stored some old things the last bunch of years, finally finding that treasured 1979 Newsweek issue I'd bought with the headline "The Gold Rush Of 79," basically centred on the huge jump in gold prices and what it might be signalling. Rather spooky the similarities of conditions described in the article - inflation versus deflation being the difference - and there was a double dip recession still on the way with unemployment higher than today.
Cowperson