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Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
I'm by no means an expert on this stuff, but I don't think this guarantees that the Supreme Court will consider the issue--it's a temporary stay while the 9th circuit rules--which won't happen until December.
I'm a little surprised that the 9th circuit granted the stay, but I think we should be a bit cautious about the "liberal" and "conservative" labels here. All the courts are considering is whether Proposition 8 is consistent with the constitution, not whether gay marriage should or should not be allowed in principle.
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The Supreme Court decides whether to take the case after the 9th Circuit's decision is appealed. IIRC they need 4 justices to agree to take the case. So they should have that from the 4 quasi-liberal Justices.
To rule to uphold Prop 8 would require a very narrow reading of the Due Process and Equal Protection clauses of the 14th amendment. Only the most ardent conservatives have that narrow a view of those clauses. Kennedy "the wildcard", is not one of those Judges. Which he proved in his majority opinion in Lawrence v. Texas. The 9th circuit upholding the lower court's ruling is almost a certainty. The Supreme Court will then in all likelihood uphold the 9th circuit's ruling. Or, at the very least, outline a civil union middle ground.