Quote:
Originally Posted by Methanolic
I only say this because I'm "Nuts".
|
I took this from the Australian Bureau of Meterorology site, but this applies worldwide. Basically you can predict the conditions for a severe thunderstorm, but it's difficult to predict where they will start forming.
Quote:
LIMITATIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
The small scale and short duration of severe thunderstorms make them difficult to predict with numerical computer models and to observe with conventional observing systems. Numerical models can predict the environmental conditions in which severe thunderstorms may develop, but cannot yet predict individual thunderstorms. Once thunderstorms have developed, weather radars are important tools for monitoring them, especially when thunderstorms are less than 200 kilometres from the radar. The radar data provide useful information about the thunderstorms, but can at times be complex to interpret because of such factors as the curvature of the earth, "spreading out" of the radar beam, slight loss of beam power as it passes through rainfall and blocking of the beam by mountains. Also, severe thunderstorms often occur in locations where no storm spotters are available. In summary, people receiving Severe Thunderstorm Warnings need to keep the following limitations in mind: - Warnings may be limited in accuracy because of the complexities involved in detecting thunderstorms, assessing their severity and predicting how they will move and evolve.
- Warnings may not provide much advance notice (maybe less than 15 minutes). Warnings are usually issued only after evidence of severe thunderstorms has been received. There can also be delays in communications systems and in getting the Warning broadcast by radio and TV.
- Severe thunderstorms should not be expected to occur everywhere in the warned area or for the entire period covered by the Warning.
- Warnings can only be effective if people take appropriate protective actions.
|
http://www.bom.gov.au/info/thunder/