^I think it's the second option there. People in the ABM side of things know her name and that is enough. I think it's really hard for the others unless they can distinguish themselves.
Going back a bit the reason Nenshi can't win is because of polls like Metro. I know that is a small sample size, but the thing is that unless you're paying strict attention no one knows who the guy is. The vote splitting has to get pretty severe before a point is reached where he can come up between others.
Higgins coming in is not good at all for this now "second tier". People want to vote for a perceived winner, or someone with a chance. Unfortunately (if you share my view) that race is now between Higgins and McIver. That isn't to say that all is lost and there is no chance for a third candidate to battle with these two, but it's not going to be easy for them to make that ground up.
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