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Originally Posted by chemgear
The majority of the month is in the books already and it looks like pricing will be flat if not down a little bit from May. SFH (condo too) sales numbers look to be decreasing as well, even from last month - seems low versus historical May/June/July numbers.
Of course as a result, inventory also keep going up - we're at 6304 already. At this pace, by the July interest rate announcement we'll be close to the 2008 peak of 7099. Absorption rates are up to nearly 6 (1.8 to 3.5ish a balanced market?)
Interesting numbers.
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Yep, sales numbers are decreasing. From a historical standpoint, sales are on pace to be the lowest recorded in June in over 10 years...
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...-estate-stats/
http://www.bobtruman.com/blogs/bob_t...mer-ahead.aspx
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For the first 23 days of June, sales are 39% lower than last year, and 34% lower than the historic average.
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The downward trend of pending sales seems to suggest July might be even worse.
On the inventory front though, while inventory did reach a new peak this month, the pace of new inventory seems to have slowed.
With all of the delistings that are likely to happen today (being the end of the month) the month end inventory for June SFH will likely be around 6,000. That's up about 400 from the end of May. The end of April was around 5,000, or up 1,000ish from March.
In other words, it's entirely possible that we've reached our inventory peak for the year, so hitting 7,000 isn't a certainty. It will be interesting to see how many choose to relist in July. I would imagine a lot of people who put their home up for sale in the spring are getting a bit tired of trying to sell 2-3 months later.
The question of course becomes, what happens to all this inventory, does it get taken off the market for good? Is the price lowered to get it sold? Or into the rental market?