Quote:
Originally Posted by Resolute 14
Where, praytel, would the centre-right liberals go if this party should move left?
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I don't think the party will suddenly become blatantly socialist. I think it will initially start out with fearmongering about such things, the same way the new Conservatives started out with the other parties and many everyday Canadians fearing them as
What do we have now? We have, essentially, the Reform/Alliance party+a few other MP's, but the rebranding worked, the shift to the right from the old PC voters seems not to have affected much of anything. Look at the vote in any riding in Calgary, and look at the old Reform/Alliance candidate's percentage, and then look at the old PC candidate's percentage. Then look at the CPC vote.
While they did drop a lot of voters initially, and this isn't just in Calgary, explore other Conservative ridings in the country if you wish, they eventually ended up winning back the voters they lost, then actually becoming even stronger once the party solidified.
My answer to your query is that I fully expect the centre-right Liberals to scatter their vote. I think the idea that they will all suddenly jump ship to what is essentially the Reform/Alliance + a few other MP's and help that party to a majority is utterly absurd. I also think it's absurd to think they will all vote for the potential 'Liberal Democrats.'
I don't think it's so absurd, however, to assume that if the new party strikes the right balance, if it manages to do what the Conservative merger did, to take fears of a shift to the right which probably swung the 2004 election to the Liberals, and slowly convince the voters that they did in fact speak for the centre-right and not the far right, for the mainstream right and not for the West, that this new 'Liberal Democrat' party would become a powerful and serious contender in every election. A centre-left party could very well work much like the Conservative party currently works. Traditional centres of support don't matter. Look what happened in Ontario with a party that is essentially made up of members of the Reform and Alliance parties. While Alberta is going to be a tough sell on anything involving the word 'Liberal,' I can see a bunch of Western seats going to the 'Liberal Democrats.'
Similarly, I think the first election might possibly result in a Conservative minority akin to Martin's minority for the established Liberals, a win for the established over the new and untrusted.