05-11-2010, 12:59 PM
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#68
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Sydney, NSfW
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More on the golden track record by those guys with a peculiar sounding name (that's for the conspirators out there
A bit of math for the geeky among you... or those interested in the odds of Goldman's "perfect trading record" being achievable.
Let's take a simple game of chance. We flip a coin and call "heads" a winning day, and "tails" a losing day. A pure game of chance with a 50% set of odds for each "trial."
So what are the odds that in a pure game of chance the coin would come up "heads" all 60 times?
That would be 8.67 x 10-19, or 8.67 times in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000 attempts (if I counted my zeros correctly.)
Now certainly trading is not a pure game of chance. Indeed, quite to the contrary; trading is allegedly a game of skill in the main.
I will leave it to you, and those who investigate frauds, to determine whether the application of skill, without any sort of cheating such as front-running client orders, insider information or other forms of rigging the markets, can turn the random chance odds of 8.67 x 10-19 into an event that has, in fact, actually occurred.
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