Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame
And it is with this possibility, I think, that we could see a domino effect take hold in the middle east. Once Israel begins a conventional assault on the Iranians, Israel would likely lose their few allies in the region, and Hamas / Hezbollah would almost certainly declare full out war on Israel, with Syria likely following suit. At this point, the IDF would be stretched incredibly thin, the Americans would automatically be sucked into the conflict given their geostrategic location in Iraq, which would then lead to a highly acrimonious relationship with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and other countries.
|
I think a war with Iran might actually strengthen Israel's ties with many Arab countries. The Sunni/e divide and the Persian/Arab divides are a lot stronger than people make them out to be. They aren't played out in the media like the Jewish/Muslim conflict, but like I said before, far more people died in the Iran/Iraq war than all other modern middle eastern conflicts combined.
I think there is a good chance Syria/Hamas/Hezbollah might pile on Israel in a moment of weakness. There is no chance that Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Turkey would ever join in. They have their own interest in seeing Iran fall and they are way too dependent on US money.
A coalition of Hezbollah/Hamas/Syria would be pretty pathetic really. They are all isolated financially and diplomatically and have no modern armaments to speak of. For as much flack as Israel gets for the brutallity of its recent invasion of Gaza and Lebanon, they took a lot of steps to avoid casualties. If Israel was in a more desperate situation they would just take safer (from their perspective) and more efficient means of dealing with them next time. IE bomb the crap out of them.