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think you are under-estimating what intellegence is capable of Captain, both in the U.S. and abroad. I am surprised considering your military/political knowledge. Osama Bin Laden was not meant to be caught.
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The CIA is not infalliable, they have mishandled multiple intelligence operations since the day they were founded. They even admit that their intelligence gathering has been weak.
I think your giving them to much credit based on the fictional interpretation of the all mighty CIA.
In fact the biggest problem with the CIA is that they don't fund operations enough so they don't have proper feet on the ground. They depend too much on other agencies to provide their technical means (which are hugely exagerated). And they're a government department thats highly politicized.