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yads · 03-19-2010, 03:32 PM

I did some analysis of historical 5 year mortgage rates and BOC lending rates.

There was only 1 time in history where the mortgage rate increased at over 1% per year over a 5 year period. That was from 1978-1982 where rates increased on average at 1.5% per year.

For the BOC lending rate rates increased an average of 1.15%/year from 76-80, 1.6% from 77-81, and 1.24% from 78-82.

So if we take the worst scenario of these scenarios the 1.5%/year for mortgage rates we could see 11.25% (based on 3.75% current rates) rates and as for BOC prime we could see 9.25%. Is it possible that we could see 15% mortgage rates? Sure, is it likely within the next 5 years? Very, very improbable.

03-19-2010, 03:32 PM	#804
yads Powerplay Quarterback Join Date: Apr 2008 Exp:	I did some analysis of historical 5 year mortgage rates and BOC lending rates. There was only 1 time in history where the mortgage rate increased at over 1% per year over a 5 year period. That was from 1978-1982 where rates increased on average at 1.5% per year. For the BOC lending rate rates increased an average of 1.15%/year from 76-80, 1.6% from 77-81, and 1.24% from 78-82. So if we take the worst scenario of these scenarios the 1.5%/year for mortgage rates we could see 11.25% (based on 3.75% current rates) rates and as for BOC prime we could see 9.25%. Is it possible that we could see 15% mortgage rates? Sure, is it likely within the next 5 years? Very, very improbable.