[Pastiche]

Let's say this is happening...rich Russian is only leaving his money in a Vancouver condo while prices are still appreciating or level off. If/when prices start dropping, how long will he (and all the others) wait before unloading it? I guess it depends on how rich he is. Sooner or later they will all start selling....leading to a lot more supply.

First, it is happening. The high vacancy rates of condos is a clear testament to the phenomenom. Second, prices did just drop, how many of them sold off? I don't know. Not enough to reorient prices to more baseline levels that's for sure, look at the graph above. I wouldn't bank on the selling happening all at once. I see it as an incremental sell off and I wouldn't put it past more executive purchases of real estate in the city. What I'm saying is the phenomenom may only intensify or marginally subside.

This is the running out of land argument that has been popular here for years. I don't buy it. Vancouver has lots of room to grow...especially up.

It's not an argument it's a fact. Vancouver proper has been entirely built out. You are right, you can now build up. Vancouver's neighbourhoods are, on average, less dense than similar Canadian counterparts in Toronto and Montreal. Sam Sullivan tried the 'ecodensity' thing but met alot of resistance in the least dense neighbourhoods like Dunbar and Mount Pleasant. My point is that building up is a good idea and will happen but it will happen alot slower in the actual neighbourhoods than most people think. City voters like their single detached neighbourhoods and wont convert them easily or quickly to more dense multi-residential building. The result, yes, tight supply.

This is of course looking at the city in a bubble, people can live in Maple Ridge, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Mission but the fact of the matter is that most people want to live in Vancouver and that wont change anytime soon.