Quote:
Originally Posted by Netskot
why not just give Spain the title now and cancel the whole thing?
|
Because it is highly likely that Spain will not win.
While Spain and Brazil have the most electrifying rosters, they've all laid some real stinkers in the last year or so.
With Spain, sure they won Euro 08, but they have a long reputation of blowing big games. Confed Cup 09 was a great example. Brazil is the epitome of jekyll and hyde.
There's really no telling which Brazil shows up in any given game, and could easily be knocked out by a mid-range European power or better if they come out flat. They have a pretty easy road to the final if they win their group. They'll likely see Switzerland in the round of 16, the Dutch or Slovaks in the quarters, and probably Greece, Serbia, US, England, France or Mexico in the semis.
England may be rethinking that "E.A.S.Y." (England, Algeria, Slovenia, Yanks) estimation of their group. The US are legitimate players, and Slovenia is not a bad team, beating Russia in the knockout stage, and coming in second place in a group featuring the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia (legitimate mid-level European teams). Capello is a good coach, but his biggest weakness is knockout games. He twice lead a Juventus out of the CL early in the knockout stages in 2005 and 2006, with practically the entire starting 11 of the day being a part of WC champs Italy, or WC runner-up France. England's roster boasts very few legitimate threats. Whoever wins Group C though, likely has an easy road to the semis.
Italy and France are both shadows of their former selves, and I expect very little from either. Even with my Azzurri-colored glasses, I think a Top 4 finish is a significant accomplishment for Lippi's boys. Their reward for a first place finish in an easy looking group is a round of 16 match likely with the Danes, and a likely semi-final date with Spain. If they aren't so lucky and end up in second, Holland and Brazil would be their next two games...
Portugal and Netherlands are always dangerous, but neither look poised to advance beyond their typical bridesmaid status.
Argentina is a mess, but gifted with a relatively straight forward group if they come to play... which really leaves Germany as the most intact major nation. They are my bet to win it.
Germany-Spain semi-final, Brazil-Germany final.
Its pretty wide open, but some of these groups are just way too lame. Groups A-C at present look open to allow some very weak teams into the knockout rounds.