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Originally Posted by Red
So what are the chances of Conan getting a 11:30 spot on FOX? Wouldn't that be a suicide? He couldn't beat Letterman alone, how is he gonna beat Letterman and Leno?
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Most Fox stations have news from 10:00 to 10:59, so Conan would likely be starting at 11:00, which will help him.
You're completely right in that the most likely result is Conan pulling in 3rd place ratings in the short term. From Fox's perspective, the only way that it makes sense is if they're looking at building the Fox brand, and looking for a show that's going to pay off over the next 10 or 15 years; when Jay and Dave eventually retire, Conan will become the most established brand in late night television. Whether they're willing to make that sort of long-term commitment remains to be seen.
That said, they can't ignore ratings in the meantime; they'd need him to pull in strong numbers, even in third place. If he continues to have the best ratings of any of the three in the youngest age category, Fox would probably be pretty satisfied.