Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
I don't trust any polls that are anything more than a couple of weeks away from an election. The majority of people will vote based on last impressions and have really short memories. A video clip of Stockwell Day waterskiing will likely get the Conservatives back up in the polls.
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That's one of those things that seems intuitively like it should be true--but in fact, the vast majority of people don't change their voter preference during an election season. It's far more difficult than people think to "move the numbers" in the absence of some sort of game-changing event.
I think you are right to suggest caution in interpreting these results, though. If in the next three weeks the numbers for Harper shoot back up, then we can probably just call this a "reverse honeymoon."
But I actually think it's likely they won't; think of the psychology of a random voter who has previously voted conservative but now has decided not to because he or she is upset about Harper proroguing parliament.
This person is a) engaged in the political process, b) cares about Harper's actions and c) is highly likely to remember this next time he or she goes to the polls.
Time will tell--but this is bad news for Harper. It's not good news for the Liberals--at least not yet--because their support has not increased. But if this is a solid erosion of Harper's support, he's very unlikely to get those votes back unless something else happens to move the needle in the other direction.