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Originally Posted by Got Miikka?
I think you may be wrong about this.
It is by no means a certainty any which way you slice it - but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this movie win the Best Picture Oscar. For comparison's sake, Avatar is up for the Best Dramatic Film award at the Golden Globes, against The Hurt Locker, Up In The Air, Precious, and Inglourious Basterds. Personally, I thought Basterds and Up In The Air were better overall movies, but when you factor in political reasons such as Avatar's ability to put butts in seats and the campaign Fox will likely launch to get it some awards, I would give it a good shot at taking the big award (bear in mind the Oscars is upping their Best Picture shortlist to 10 for some reason this year, but I doubt that will have any real effect).
Will be interesting to watch how it unfolds over the next few weeks.
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I'd be surprised to see this win, but you might be right about the political reasons. Has there ever been a big budget Sci-Fi movie that won an Oscar? Do you think they'll overlook the "weak story" and give it the award just because of what they've accomplished with the CGI?