Probably the biggest determining factor is the economics of other teams. In the end, Toronto will probably pay Bosh the max to keep him if they need to, and they can exceed the cap to get to that point. So unless Bosh takes a significant discount to move to a contender (possible, but unlikely), he could find himself choosing between Toronto or another unproven team. I think It will come down to New York, New Jersey, and Miami as the three other viable options. New York won't become a contender simply by adding Bosh; they'll need clear a huge amount of cap space to get another near max player (like James) as well as Bosh. The challenge is pretty much the same for the Nets, although they have more cap space and fewer existing assets.
Miami is in a better position, as they can clear cap room, sign Bosh, and then go over the cap to retain Wade (I think). But if they do have the room to maintain Wade and sign a player to the max, then they may go after James, which would leave Bosh without a realistic dance partner. Add to it that Stoudemire will also be looking to move teams, arguably only one of the two will have a chance to get the max with a contending team.
That said, if they do lose Bosh to free agency, I think they could do well by going after one of the free agent centers out there and move Bargnani to a power forward position. While I'd prefer for them to keep Bosh, a frontcourt of, say, Chandler, Bargnani and Turkoglu would have a better defensive presence than the current lineup, though less offense.
|