Next year will be an interesting year of spin regardless of where it is in the recorded temperature record due to the possibility of a strong El Nino.
Scenario 1.
It is in the middle of the top 10 warmest years on record.
Spin: See, even with an El Nino the temperature didn't rise as much as it should have.
Scenario 2 (most likely IMO).
It's one of the top 2 years on record and the conversation goes something like this.
AGW: "2010 was one of the top 2 warmest years on record. Talk to me now about the temperature decline you keep going on about."
Denier: "2010 doesn't count as it was an El Nino year"
AGW: "So was 1998?"
AGW Denier: "What's that got to do with it?"
AGW: "Well your argument was that temperatures have gone down since then and it was an El Nino year, therefore that shouldn't count either."
"playing by your rules and getting rid of 1998 El Nino, leaves us with the last 9 years having been the 9 warmest on records."
AGW Denier: "You can't get rid of 1998, that's fudging the data."
AGW: "Ok, then so .... we can't get rid of 2010 either ..... the warmest/2nd warmest on record."
AGW Denier: "But, but, you can't count 2010 .... that's not fair .......it was an El Nino year."
AGW: "So was 1998"
AGW Denier: "But that's different....."
|