Exactly. The crowd that watches Leno are are getting older, so they followed him to the earlier slot so they can get to bed earlier. Short of having a very specific person that can draw in a very large amount of viewers, this would have happened to anyone that took over that slot.
I can't remember how Leno/Letterman did in their early days, but I'm sure at least one of them had low ratings less than a year in to their gigs. They need to give Conan some time to build his audience. I really can't see them dropping him this quickly.
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