Quote:
Originally Posted by Sliver
O RLY? Wow, you must have a crystal ball because that's a fairly brazen prediction without any hard evidence to back it up. Let me get this straight, "stay balls deep in an unwinnable war or there will be a global catastrophe." Sounds like fear mongering to me.
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That's funny, my thesaurus doesn't have 'implications' and 'catastrophe' as synonyms. Either you're very confused about the meaning of these words, or you're intentionally trying to misrepresent my arguments.
Let's think about the potential consequences of a failed state in Afghanistan:
most obvious is that it becomes a potential breeding ground for terrorists; al qaeda is far from eradicated, and recent western involvement in the region has only increased anti-western sentiment. Any extremist organization that's given the time and security to actually set up operations will be able to expand greatly. The invasion of Iraq has greatly increased the stakes in Afghanistan.
Secondly, the heroin-based drug trade will escalate from it's already high levels, increasing crime nationally and throughout the region, and increasing drug supply primarily in Russia, Europe, and the East, but here as well.
Thirdly, if the west doesn't resolve the situation, Iran and Pakistan will become heavily involved in a military capacity. I worry about the potential of the Iranian and Pakistani spheres of influence colliding. For one thing, such a conflict would probably bolster support for the current regimes in both those countries. Tensions between those two countries could also further Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Fourthly, a failed state increases the likelihood of sectarian and tribal violence, which could produce either genocide or mass refugee scenarios. A Shi'a vs. Sunni civil war could turn very bloody. Either of these are situations that the international community has a moral obligation to get involved in, if not prevent outright.
None of these are a global catastrophe, but all four of them have global implications. (See the difference?)