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octothorp · 11-10-2009, 02:35 PM

Going seat by seat:

The Coquitlam news is probably the most significant. What was previously a battleground seat turned into an NDP rout. This is significant because there were a lot of seats that were Tory vs. NDP battlegrounds. Pair this with the recent Ekos polling which still shows the Tories polling behind their 2008 results in BC (despite being ahead nearly everywhere else in the country), and it emphasizes the fact that BC is where the Tories need to do the most work. Otherwise, they could end up losing other similar battleground ridings like North Surrey and Nanaimo. That said, third party votes always need to be taken with a grain of salt in by-elections, but the NDP don't necessarily count as a third party in BC. The Conversatives have always gained from vote-splitting here, and they might not get that luxury next time around.
For the Liberals, the low polls suggest that there probably isn't much potential to pick up seats in BC right now, but their west vancouver stronghold should be safe. They'd probably lose North Delta to the NDP right now.

The Tories are touting Cumberland as a pick-up, but this was an independant Tory seat last time around, and has long been a Tory seat. With Bill Casey stepping down, his support, predictably, went mostly to the Tories (though not so overwhelmingly as you might think, as Casey + the Tory candidate earned nearly 78% of the vote. The Liberals have to view this as good news (their only good news on the day) that they gained more of the Casey supporters than you would think. Hard to make any extrapolations here about Nova Scotia in general.

Montmagny is a riding that borders a lot of Conservative ridings, so while it's a positive pickup, it's not really shocking. Like BC, they're polling slightly behind 2008 results, while both the Libs and Bloc are slightly ahead. So I don't see any strong shift in the province; right now, I'd say it's just the result of a popular local politician, but if it spreads to other parts of rural quebec, there are enough seats there for the Tories to make significant gains.

The Hochelaga result is interesting, in that it shows the NDP continuing to build on their one Montreal seat. They stole votes from the Liberals here, which goes against current polling showing them down slightly. It looks like they are starting to establish themselves as a legitimate player in the Montreal ridings (though they're very candidate-dependent). Also suggests that any gains that the Tories might be making in rural Quebec is not carrying over into the urban ridings.

I'd say that the NDP were winners this go-round. Although I'd suspect that they tend to do better overall in by-elections. Conservatives have some reasons for optimism and reasons for worry, while the Liberals have only reasons for worry.

11-10-2009, 02:35 PM	#17
octothorp Franchise Player Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: not lurking Exp:	Going seat by seat: The Coquitlam news is probably the most significant. What was previously a battleground seat turned into an NDP rout. This is significant because there were a lot of seats that were Tory vs. NDP battlegrounds. Pair this with the recent Ekos polling which still shows the Tories polling behind their 2008 results in BC (despite being ahead nearly everywhere else in the country), and it emphasizes the fact that BC is where the Tories need to do the most work. Otherwise, they could end up losing other similar battleground ridings like North Surrey and Nanaimo. That said, third party votes always need to be taken with a grain of salt in by-elections, but the NDP don't necessarily count as a third party in BC. The Conversatives have always gained from vote-splitting here, and they might not get that luxury next time around. For the Liberals, the low polls suggest that there probably isn't much potential to pick up seats in BC right now, but their west vancouver stronghold should be safe. They'd probably lose North Delta to the NDP right now. The Tories are touting Cumberland as a pick-up, but this was an independant Tory seat last time around, and has long been a Tory seat. With Bill Casey stepping down, his support, predictably, went mostly to the Tories (though not so overwhelmingly as you might think, as Casey + the Tory candidate earned nearly 78% of the vote. The Liberals have to view this as good news (their only good news on the day) that they gained more of the Casey supporters than you would think. Hard to make any extrapolations here about Nova Scotia in general. Montmagny is a riding that borders a lot of Conservative ridings, so while it's a positive pickup, it's not really shocking. Like BC, they're polling slightly behind 2008 results, while both the Libs and Bloc are slightly ahead. So I don't see any strong shift in the province; right now, I'd say it's just the result of a popular local politician, but if it spreads to other parts of rural quebec, there are enough seats there for the Tories to make significant gains. The Hochelaga result is interesting, in that it shows the NDP continuing to build on their one Montreal seat. They stole votes from the Liberals here, which goes against current polling showing them down slightly. It looks like they are starting to establish themselves as a legitimate player in the Montreal ridings (though they're very candidate-dependent). Also suggests that any gains that the Tories might be making in rural Quebec is not carrying over into the urban ridings. I'd say that the NDP were winners this go-round. Although I'd suspect that they tend to do better overall in by-elections. Conservatives have some reasons for optimism and reasons for worry, while the Liberals have only reasons for worry.