Quote:
Originally Posted by Bownesian
If you asked the callers to Cross Country Checkup on CBC Radio Sunday, the polling would probably have been 70% Liberal, 15% NDP and 15% Conservative. There are some lefties out there that *hate* the current government with the burning fire of a thousand suns but those poll numbers (and the comment section of cbc.ca) really haven't changed since before the last election.
I can't see the NDP directly supporting the government so I don't know how we can avoid another fall election. I see two possible outcomes from this:
1) The Conservatives make the pitch to form a majority government and the country goes along with them.
2) Liberal Minority with no NDP balance of power. I can't see the Libs and NDP adding up to a majority without a significant collapse in the conservative vote, which I think to be extremely unlikely.
3) Conservative minority that collapses after the throne speech resulting in a "Coalition if Necessary"
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I agree to a certain extent, but there is one major difference between the polls now and last fall--and it's Quebec and Ontario. If Harper goes the "anti-coalition route" he's all but guaranteed to lose 10 seats in Quebec. He also currently holds 51 seats in Ontario and his poll numbers there don't look great (though.. regional sample, high MOE etc. etc.). If these polls are accurate, we could easily see a swing of 30 or 40 seats to the BQ and Liberals without the topline numbers moving much at all.