Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/news/ne...alian+showdown
Robbie Keane has sent a warning shot across the bows of world champions Italy ahead of their crucial meeting with Republic of Ireland in Dublin on 10 October 2009.
Away wins for the Italians and the Irish on Saturday keep Marcello Lippi's charges a point clear at the top of Group 8 heading into 9 September's clash with third-placed Bulgaria in Turin.
Keane's late strike in Nicosia finally saw off Cyprus, while the Italians won 2-0 in Georgia to set up a showdown at Croke Park when a major blow could be struck either way in the race for qualification for South Africa.
Irish eyes will be fully focused on Turin on Wednesday evening - Trapattoni's men play a friendly against South Africa in Limerick 24 hours earlier - and opinion may be divided on the best result.
Victory for Italy would make winning the group intensely difficult for Ireland, but would virtually guarantee them the runners-up spot. A Bulgaria win would blow the race wide open, although that would drag Dimitar Berbatov and company back into striking distance.
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This is incorrect. A draw is the best result for Ireland. An Italy win doesn't help as they have two home matches left: Italy and Montenegro. Bulgaria, if they were to lose to Italy, would have two matches left against Georgia and Cyprus. Were they to win both, as you would expect, they'd finish on 17 points, meaning that Ireland would need to get at least two points out of the two matches against Italy and Montenegro. I'll take a stab and say they only get one. It would go to goal difference at that point.
Only eight of the nine runners up qualify for the playoff, so seventeen points might not cut it.