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Old 09-04-2009, 02:48 PM   #279
Iowa_Flames_Fan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rerun View Post
Good points but your analysis is only correct if they take 34 seats (24% of their current number of Conservative seats) away from the Conservative Party leaving the Conservatives with 109 seats in parliament. I still don't think it would happen. Thats a pretty big swing, particularly when the Libs really don't have anything major to beat the Conservatives over the head with, during the election campaign.

Historically, that would be a pretty small swing, actually. And considering EKOS' Ontario numbers, where the Liberals now have a seven point lead, not out of the realm of possiblity. Keep in mind that the Tories have 51 seats in Ontario, so if those numbers (which have a margin of error of 3.7%--quite high in my opinion) are right on, Harper could be in some trouble.
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