Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
Keep in mind that to form the government, they only need to pass the Conservatives, which, if the Bloc and NDP stay the same, means they need 34 seats, not 67 (since every seat gained is one lost by the opposition). So rather than needing to increase their number of seats by 86%, it's actually closer to 43%. And if they're able to steal a half-dozen seats from the Bloc (who's numbers are way down) and a few from the NDP, then it's looking more like they need to pick up about 25 or so currently Conservative seats. Is that possible? You could easily point out 25 Conservative seats that the Liberals could challenge (and of course, there are a lot of seats they'll have to defend against all three other parties). If I was betting, I'd bet against it, but wouldn't be that unusual a swing for a Canadian election.
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Good points but your analysis is only correct if they take 34 seats (24% of their current number of Conservative seats) away from the Conservative Party leaving the Conservatives with 109 seats in parliament. I still don't think it would happen. Thats a pretty big swing, particularly when the Libs really don't have anything major to beat the Conservatives over the head with, during the election campaign.