Quote:
Originally Posted by octothorp
You mean the Ipsos Reid one from August 24? Did you have a look at the Harris Decima one from the same day?
http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downl...es/082409E.pdf
It paints the picture as being pretty good for the Liberals right now, and its sample size is nearly double (2000 to 1000) what the Ipsos Reid one was.
It presents almost the exact opposite picture in Ontario (Libs leading 40 to 34, vs. Tories leading 41 to 30 in the IR). As discussed on here when the Ipsos Reid one came out, it really does look like an outlier. |
Those poll numbers are definitely good for the Grits. Those Ontario numbers alone, with the right splits could lead to 65-70 seats minimum in that province, Atlantic is probably good for 25 seats for the Grits and Quebec is probably good for 15-20 with those numbers. That could lead them 105-115 coming out west. If they can pull 10-15 in the Western provinces, they would likely form government. If the poll numbers were really slipping for the Grits, Harper and his buddies would not be in such a panic to throw water on the idea of an election. Unless people actually think that Harper has become adverse to elections in the past 12 months.