Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Sorry, but I like my link better. Here's why: mine gives an aggregate running average of polls. Yours is a single poll. Canadian polls are prone to high rates of error because they're so bad at accounting for regional shifts in vote. Add to that the various methodologies, where small differences in voter screens can add high rates of variation, and it adds up to a situation where you're better off not taking a single poll too seriously, especially when it contradicts the overall trend. This one is most probably an outlier.
In any case, 43% is one of those tricky numbers. It could give him a majority if the chips fall correctly, but also might end up giving him a minority again. He was never that strong; and that's pretty telling, given the stunning mediocrity of his opposition last fall.
Put another way: there's a reason that Harper panicked and started running attack ads when the Liberals switched leaders. He's smart enough to know that last fall was a profound reality check for him, even if some people out West are prepared to anoint him PM for life.
|
Your own link is only confirming what I was saying . . . .
http://www.sfu.ca/%7Eaheard/elections/polls.html
. . . . . in the link I later added . . . . . .
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/b...-majority.aspx
. . . . . that the Conservatives were trending towards a majority in early to mid-September.
Then the full weight of the economic collapse began to be reflected in heavy equity losses and gathering panic on a global basis as we marched into late September/early October where, again, a critical two week period at the end of the former/start of the latter had markets losing about 33% . . . . . and polling, which had already flattened, took a dramatic shift at pretty much the identical moment.
Again, others might argue there were other, political factors involved in the Conservative polling reversal. Fine. I don't believe it but everyone has an opinion.
However, the point that the Conservatives were trending towards a majority in early September still stands.
Cowperson