Quote:
Originally Posted by Cowperson
Actually, I do remember right.
As per the link below he was polling very strong heading into early September . . . . . then as the economic meltdown picked up speed, the wheels started to fall off.
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/b...-majority.aspx
Others may suggest different reasons for losing traction but I'll stick with the obvious economic one . . . . . that was a pretty strong headwind for any government anywhere in the world at that time.
In the last week of September and the first week of October, as an example, I think the S&P 500 lost 33%, with other global market matching that.
Cowperson |
Sorry, but I like my link better. Here's why: mine gives an aggregate running average of polls. Yours is a single poll. Canadian polls are prone to high rates of error because they're so bad at accounting for regional shifts in vote. Add to that the various methodologies, where small differences in voter screens can add high rates of variation, and it adds up to a situation where you're better off not taking a single poll too seriously, especially when it contradicts the overall trend. This one is most probably an outlier.
In any case, 43% is one of those tricky numbers. It could give him a majority if the chips fall correctly, but also might end up giving him a minority again. He was never that strong; and that's pretty telling, given the stunning mediocrity of his opposition last fall.
Put another way: there's a reason that Harper panicked and started running attack ads when the Liberals switched leaders. He's smart enough to know that last fall was a profound reality check for him, even if some people out West are prepared to anoint him PM for life.