Quote:
Originally Posted by Wookie
I was chatting to a senior policy advisor in Ottawa yesterday.
Basically the strategy the liberals are pulling is as such:
Ignatieff gets a freebie loss. He can have an election and lose once and the party nor public give him a hard time about it. So they do this, he loses or just wins.
If he loses Harper gets a minority AGAIN!
This causes infighting in the conservative ranks. Harper having had 4 tries now and 4 minorities is done or should be.
Problems arise in conservative party. Leadership stuff begins with Prentice and Some other guy I can't remember name. Both are polar opposites and have roots dating back to the two different parties. Mess ensues and the conservatives are a wreck.
If Ignatieff wins. Then who cares (other than conservatives obviously).
|
To me, its a really bad strategy and an ill timed one as well. first and foremost, the Liberals have stalled after their goodwill period or honeymoon period for changing leaders. Ignatieff hasn't done a good job of laying out any kind of vision for this country, and I think for the most part his negative sniping is starting to fall on deaf ears.
The Liberal fund raising effort has improved, but I'm not convinced that they have the money needed to fight an election this quickly, whereas the Conservatives have a huge war chest.
Any good will that the Liberal's have is going to shatter if they trigger an election.
Especially with signs of an economic turnaround. I think that the Conservatives did a good job of saving jobs in the auto industry in Ontario. The Khadr and the passport stuff aren't enough to cause a downfall of a government, and it would be stupid to think that those two issues would cause a dynamic shift in votes. The Liberal's can point to the deficit caused by the Conservatives, the Conservatives can point out that the deficit was caused by the Conservatives working with the Liberal's to keep the government in place.
Meanwhile, The NDP will probably go after the Liberals extremely hard over the 79 compromises that the Liberals made with the Conservative government where the Liberal's really won nothing.
The Conservatives can hedge the Liberal EI plan and they've already started to punch holes in it. They can also point out that the Liberal's don't seem to be willing to wait for the recommendations of that multiparty committee.
The Environment? This election has to be about the Economy Stupid, and I don't see where the Conservatives have done an especially poor job of handling it thus far.
Your right, we can see a minority either way, but my guy tells me that the undecided Canadian right now, that has no interest in an election, might change their minds and vote out of anger against the Liberals.
You can talk about rifts in the Conservative party, but I think that yesterdays statement by Ignatieff shows that there might be a significant rift in the Liberal party between those who wanted elections like Bob Rae and those who didn't.
Even if Harper wins a minority, he's not going anywhere, he'll serve his term and oversee the succession before the next election 13 months from now.
But if Harper wins a majority, then Ignatieff falls, its that simple, he has a freebee election to lose as long as he shows gains, if he shows losses or gives the Harper Government a ride to ultimate power, we'll see another Liberal Leadership convention in the next year.